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 The year 2001 has seen steady declines in Latin America's economic outlook. This has been nowhere more evident than in Brazil, where forecasts have tumbled over the first half of the year. Projected real growth fell from an optimistic 4.5 percent at the beginning of the year to a much more skeptical 2.6 percent by mid-year.

Several internal and external factors have conspired to work against Brazil. The shrinking Real, which dropped by 20 percent in the first half of 2001, reflects the economy's vulnerability to external pressures. Argentina and the US, Brazil's two largest export markets, have both slumped. Combined with Japan, also in decline, these three markets account for nearly one-third of Brazil's exports.