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Election
Interruptus: Of all of Latin America’s presidential elections in 2006, none is more critical to the international business community than Mexico’s July elections. The Mexican constitution does not allow President Fox to run for office again, forcing a change of leadership. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the left-of-center PRD party has led in the polls for months and by most estimates will emerge victorious in July. The political debate has revealed AMLO’s position on many issues, but coverage by the international press has been scant, leaving the investment community dangerously uninformed about the future political direction of Latin America’s largest trading nation. Not surprisingly, foreign direct investment plans are being delayed or interrupted while companies assess political risk during this period of political change. As a result, Mexico is in danger of slowing its economic growth, in spite of its admirable macro-economic stability.
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CORPORATE
OFFICE (MIAMI) Tel 305-569-9133 |
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MEXICO
CITY OFFICE Tel +52-55-5511-9607 |
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SÃO
PAULO OFFICE Tel +55-11-3168-9767 |
Morales'
Tightrope is a Bolivian president Evo Morales is a little more than half way through his first hundred days and the pressure is starting to show. Brought to power by a rag-tag coalition of angry and disenfranchised groups with no historical political experience, Morales must produce symbolic and substantial gains for his political base and do so quickly. That said, President Morales’ first trip abroad and initial discussions with development banks like the World Bank, IDB and the IMF showed him how dependent Bolivia’s economy is upon foreign lenders and investors. These are the very groups that he demonized on his way to power. The Bolivian economic elite are based largely in Santa Cruz, the natural gas rich eastern region of the country. They threaten to secede, gas and all, if “their” industry is nationalized. Dizzied by the drama of the moment and all the competing demands made of him, Morales’ next steps will feel like walking a tightrope.
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