TENDENCIAS: Latin American Market Report published by InfoAmericas


INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Getting Smart
LatAm's Payment Card Infrastructure

by Jan Smith
Director of InfoAmericas'
Financial Services Practice

As the process of consolidation and acquisition among Latin American banks has matured, key players have shifted their attention to new technologies, seeking to boost card penetration and to reinforce their competitive positions. Card penetration grew substantially during the consolidation process, rising from 17% in 2000 to nearly 27% in 2005 across the region, and reaching 30% in Brazil. Surprisingly, this growth was achieved without major upgrades to the underlying infrastructure and technology. This situation has now shifted, with an investment of more than $200 million in card technologies expected in 2006, marking a rise of 70% over 2004 and 2005. This spending will follow the same route as other recent investments and will be targeted at software solutions for credit-rating and new terminals. Further investments are expected in CRM and retail-reward solutions linked to EMV technologies.

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REGIONAL TRENDS

Election Interruptus:
Spotlight on Mexico

by Guillaume Corpart Muller,
InfoAmericas Regional Director for
Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean

Of all of Latin America’s presidential elections in 2006, none is more critical to the international business community than Mexico’s July elections. The Mexican constitution does not allow President Fox to run for office again, forcing a change of leadership. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the left-of-center PRD party has led in the polls for months and by most estimates will emerge victorious in July. The political debate has revealed AMLO’s position on many issues, but coverage by the international press has been scant, leaving the investment community dangerously uninformed about the future political direction of Latin America’s largest trading nation. Not surprisingly, foreign direct investment plans are being delayed or interrupted while companies assess political risk during this period of political change. As a result, Mexico is in danger of slowing its economic growth, in spite of its admirable macro-economic stability.

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REGIONAL TRENDS

Morales' Tightrope is a
Regional Balancing Act

by Sam Logan,
by invitation of InfoAmericas

Bolivian president Evo Morales is a little more than half way through his first hundred days and the pressure is starting to show. Brought to power by a rag-tag coalition of angry and disenfranchised groups with no historical political experience, Morales must produce symbolic and substantial gains for his political base and do so quickly. That said, President Morales’ first trip abroad and initial discussions with development banks like the World Bank, IDB and the IMF showed him how dependent Bolivia’s economy is upon foreign lenders and investors. These are the very groups that he demonized on his way to power. The Bolivian economic elite are based largely in Santa Cruz, the natural gas rich eastern region of the country. They threaten to secede, gas and all, if “their” industry is nationalized. Dizzied by the drama of the moment and all the competing demands made of him, Morales’ next steps will feel like walking a tightrope.

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