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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Latin America Food Service

Even in the worst of times, Latin Americans love to eat out. During Argentina’s severe economic crisis of February 2002, the number of meals served by the food service industry fell by only 7%, compared with a drop of 30% in overall retail sales. Changes in economic fortune affect the type of restaurant food that Latins eat much more than the number of meals. In Mexico, with its strengthened currency and expanding middle class, foreign specialty restaurants are growing, and consumers are flocking to the more than 45,000 fast food outlets that have grown by more than 20% annually since 1995. How can the Big Mac compete with the variety and taste of the taco? The answer is that it can’t but it doesn’t matter. Restaurant chains offer customers a world of intangibles that go well beyond a taste test. The success of foreign food service providers has also been bolstered by the marketing power of multinational chains, combined with a steady growth in franchising.

Oscar Gonzalez, InfoAmericas Food Industry Director, explains why Latin Americans continue to eat out, even in hard times.

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REGIONAL TRENDS

Why Latin America Matters
It’s a Question of Demographics

Demographic trends point to buoyant times for the next generation of Latin Americans. The fifty-year outlook is for strong growth in household wealth in Latin America, moderate growth in the US and declining purchasing power in Europe. Manufacturers of consumer goods will shift their offices to Central and South America to be closer to their largest markets. The fence between Mexico and the United States will disappear as immigration officials compete with their European counterparts to attract Latin American immigrants. Proportionately more workers will be earning money and paying the taxes needed to educate children and support the elderly. This phenomenon will have impacts just as profound as the “baby boom” in the US, Canada and Australia following World War II. Just as the baby boomers did, the last high-fertility generation in Latin America will transform social norms and increase household wealth as they enter the most productive stages of their lives. It is an open question how global business enterprises and regional governments will react. 

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ARGENTINA
Buenos Días Che, Welcome to the 3rd World

February’s peso devaluation finally woke most Argentineans from their 60-year dream that still counted Argentina as a member of the 1st world. Argentines reminisce about the early 20th century when their rich lands attracted more immigrants than Canada and their economy towered over France and Germany. But this enviable position began to slide during the 1940s under the imprudent populism of Peron. The assortment of incompetent governments that have ruled Argentina since then have all promised but failed to return Argentina to its former glory days, blaming the country’s problems on others and denying their own mistakes. Today most Argentines have lost all faith in their government. Sadly, the political class is still wallowing in self-delusion and has yet to wake up to the painful reality. Until an agreement is reached with the IMF to fund a bailout, and until the Duhalde administration displays a bolder vision for the country, business should and will keep its distance from Argentina.

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INFOAMERICAS PROJECTS

MARCH 2002
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