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DECEMBER 2000 |
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: What Drives Tourism
in Latin America? GUEST COLUMN: Are You Ready For E-learning… And Is It Ready For You? REGIONAL TRENDS: The Emergence of Sensible Populism ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Peru . |
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MEXICO
CITY OFFICE SAO
PAULO OFFICE |
 INDUSTRY
ANALYSISWhat Drives Tourism in Latin America? Latin America and the Caribbean together hold a 10 percent market share in terms of total international arrivals in the world. Mexico alone claims 3 percent, slightly more than all of South America combined. In some parts of Latin America and the Caribbean (Bahamas, Costa Rica, Mexico, Cuba) tourism is the largest employer and one of the largest sources of foreign capital. More than most industries, tourism dollars trickle down to small-scale business and help develop isolated regions. Politicians everywhere try to take responsibility for the development benefits of tourism. Governments in Latin America invest heavily in tourism infrastructure, almost always wasting scarce funds on tasteless mega projects that are rife with corruption and poorly planned. What well-intentioned tourism planners fail to realize is that the enormous forces driving tourism flow have little or nothing to do with the creation of new beach resorts. This article explores the factors that really do drive different types of tourism. Inbound leisure tourism is heavily influenced by the perceived safety of the destination. Currency strength is a major factor driving outbound leisure tourism. And business travelers are drawn by trade flows and investment opportunities. |
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Only a few years ago e-learning was regarded as a concept for the future. Today it is standard practice in leading corporations and educational organizations. Does this mean that a company that has not yet implemented e-learning has fallen behind the times? Maybe not. A number of problems remain to be resolved before e-learning is right for everyone. The industry is not yet fully consolidated and as a result, many potential users and contractors are still uncertain about how to tap into effective systems for developing and delivering corporate training. One reason is that the e-learning industry is still relatively young, with many contenders scrambling to grab market share. Most e-learning providers claim to offer some sweeping panacea, such as: "an end-to-end solution for all of a company's educational needs". Many also offer to simultaneously improve learning and slash costs, even in the initial implementation. Many of these claims are premature. This article predicts a coming shake-out in the industry, that will mirror the consolidation of Internet Service Providers over the past several years. It also examines the business models that are likely to emerge when the dust settles.
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  MARKET RESEARCH market profile benchmarking market entry viability market trend analysis new product testing customer satisfaction studies MARKET
INTELLIGENCE MARKET
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. REGIONAL TRENDSThe Emergence of Sensible Populism "The year 2000 ends a decade of Neo-liberalism in Latin America." If you have not read this headline somewhere, be prepared to see it in commentaries surrounding the new era of lukewarm populism across the region - the so-called Latino 3rd Way. Signs abound of a major shift in the political direction of Latin America, sparked by unprecedented democracy and general voter discontent with the neo-liberal experiment. The political pendulum has begun to swing back to the left. There are good reasons why it should. Latin American governments operate on tiny budgets. On average, the region's governments raise the equivalent of 15 percent of GDP in taxes, compared with more than 30 percent in the USA. In the past, large government equaled bad government. Poor governance, however, is reduced through a free press and vigorously interested voters, not simple cutbacks. There is a growing argument for expansion of social spending. This article discusses the most probable areas for increased government spending: health, housing, education, and agriculture. |
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 ECONOMIC
OUTLOOKPeru "The day is ours, the bloody dog is dead." Is this a battle cry from Shakespeare's King Richard III or Peru's congressional leaders after receiving Fujimori's resignation by fax? Last month, the lines between theatre and reality in Peruvian politics became blurred and as this article is published, we are still not much wiser. Until the new President takes the reigns in July 2001 and settles into the new post (1st quarter, 2002), new investment projects will remain on hold. Net outbound investment will shrink liquidity in the economy and drive up interest rates. That will increase the cost of doing business and lower consumer confidence. In the meantime, economic fundamentals are reasonably healthy thanks to strong manufacturing and fishing sectors, and stable metal prices. External economic indicators are also positive. The only risk to Peru's economy is the lack of political stability and the freeze on investment that this produces. This article argues that the most important priority for the country now is to re-strengthen the legal and democratic institutions that are a vital counterbalance to a strong presidency. The sooner this process is achieved, the sooner Peru will shine again in the eyes of international investors. |
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 AMEX Avery Dennison BBDO Booz, Allen & Hamilton Citicorp International Computer Sciences Corp. Conagra |
 INFOAMERICAS
PROJECTSfor DECEMBER 2000
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With offices in
Miami,
Mexico City,
Sao Paulo |
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GUEST
COLUMN
